Does Reducing Ozone Pollution Mitigate Global Hunger Risks Linked to Climate Policies?

Efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C could worsen world hunger by reducing the land available for agriculture in favor of forests and energy crops. However, one often overlooked factor tempers this finding: the decrease in ozone pollution that accompanies these policies. According to a recent analysis using six global agricultural economic models, this reduction in ozone could decrease the negative impact of climate measures on hunger by 15% by 2050.

Ground-level ozone forms when pollutants such as methane, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds react in sunlight. These gases are largely emitted by human activities, particularly agriculture and industry. At high concentrations, ozone damages crops, reducing yields and threatening food security. Climate change policies, by limiting the use of fossil fuels and promoting renewable energy, also lead to a reduction in these pollutants. Less ozone therefore means more abundant harvests, especially in regions where pollution is high and populations are most vulnerable.

Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is currently most widespread, would benefit the most from this effect. These two regions alone would account for 56% of the global reduction in malnutrition risk linked to lower ozone levels. Without this improvement in air quality, the high costs of climate policies and competition for agricultural land could increase the number of people suffering from hunger. Conversely, the reduction in ozone offsets some of these negative effects by boosting yields, particularly wheat in India and China.

Projections show that, without ambitious climate action, warming and rising ozone levels would increase the number of people exposed to hunger by nearly 10 million by 2050. With strict measures to limit warming to 1.5°C, food production costs would rise, but the reduction in ozone would mitigate this shock. It would prevent an additional 8 million people from falling into food insecurity, representing significant compensation for the losses caused by climate policies.

These findings highlight the importance of integrating the indirect benefits of climate actions, such as improved air quality, into assessments of their impact on agriculture. They also underscore that strategies to combat climate change must be designed with consideration for their effects on food production and access to food. Improving agricultural productivity, optimizing land use, and reducing food waste remain essential levers for reconciling ecological transition and food security.

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Cited Study

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01322-3

Title: Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Journal: Nature Food

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: Shujuan Xia; Tomoko Hasegawa; Thanapat Jansakoo; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Kazuaki Tsuchiya; Shinichiro Fujimori; Maksym Chepeliev; Marta Kozicka; Abhijeet Mishra; Willem-Jan van Zeist; Xin Zhao; Thijs de Lange; Thais Diniz Oliveira; Jonathan C. Doelman; Matthew Gibson; Petr Havlík; Mario Herrero; Ipsita Kumar; Yuki Ochi; Timothy B. Sulser; Marina Sundiang; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Jun’ya Takakura; Keith Wiebe